EU Measures Against Serbia? & more–17th Oct 2023

Dobar dan from BA! This is the Rorshok Serbia Update from the 17th of October twenty twenty-three A quick summary of what's going down in Serbia.

On Tuesday the 10th, Viola von Cramon, a member of the European Parliament, announced that the EU has drafted measures against Serbia to penalize the country for the Banjska shootout. Recall that in late September, around thirty armed Serbian men shot a Kosovo police officer dead in Banjska, Kosovo. After the shootout, Milan Radoicic, a former vice president of the Serb party in Kosovo Serbian List, admitted to being involved in the planning and supplying of weapons for the shootout. Other Serbian officials denied any involvement or prior knowledge of the attack, however, the EU has accused them of not being transparent enough. Von Cramon said that Serbia must conduct a proper investigation on everyone who might have been involved, and added that “if Serbia does not take action, the EU will”. She did not specify what the measures that the EU has drafted are, but she said that they will be political and financial.

Speaking of Serbia’s relations with Kosovo…

During the Berlin Process summit that took place on Monday the 16th in Albania, Serbia refused to sign the EU-facilitated basic agreement and Ohrid agreement, which focus on the normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo. Kosovo’s PM Kurti said that he asked Serbian PM Brnabic to sign the agreements, however, he said that she refused to, despite the fact that Serbia verbally entered into the pact in February. The signing of these documents would mean great progress for further normalization of relations. Still, that path includes the de facto recognition of Kosovo’s sovereignty, which Serbia does not support. Back in February, President Vucic refused to officially sign these agreements, even though they would mean progress in the dialogue. On Monday, he even failed to show up at the summit and instead sent Brnabic to discuss the Kosovo-Serbia relations with regional leaders for him.

The opposition parties sent a letter to Joseph Borell, an EU diplomacy chief, saying the EU should not impose sanctions on Serbia but on Vucic. The President said that the opposition’s requests for the EU to impose sanctions on him showed fear, adding that the opposition did not have a chance of beating him in the upcoming elections. However, in their letter to Borrell, the opposition noted the illegality of the actions that Serb men carried out in Banjska. The opposition has also accused Vucic of authoritarianism in Serbia.

The President has also set the final election dates. He announced that the urgent parliamentary snap elections in Belgrade and in Vojvodina province will be held on the 17th of December. Despite Vucic’s confidence, political analysts said that the opposition is in with a chance of winning. However, they noted that he is using the opposition's request for his sanctioning to his own advantage because people might think the opposition is requesting that the EU sanction the whole country— not just the president.

While on the topic of elections…

On Friday the 13th, the Serbian List party announced that they will be participating in the possible local elections in the north of Kosovo. They added that the decision to participate in the elections depends on the Serbian President. The Serbian List leader called on Kosovo officials to call for early local elections for mayors and local councilors in all four municipalities in the north of Kosovo as soon as possible.

Earlier this year, Kosovo Serbs boycotted the local elections in the Kosovo north because ethnic Albanians won despite the record low turnout of three percent. What followed were violent protests in Kosovo’s north consisting of Kosovo Serbs boycotting the newly elected mayors. Currently, the Serbian List is losing its popularity in Kosovo, as their former vice president admitted to being involved in the Banjska shootout.

Another Serbia Against Violence protest took place on Saturday the 14th, making it the 24th protest since the mass shooting in Vladislav Ribnikar elementary school. The demonstration was held in many Serbian cities, including Belgrade, Kraljevo, and Kragujevac. In Belgrade, the citizens gathered in front of the presidency building and marched down to the Supreme Public Prosecutor's Office building. The protesters requested the Office that they investigate all recent government affairs, calling for transparency from the executive. Other than that, the protest demands have stayed the same, and they include the ousting of several corrupt government officials and the shutting down of TV channels that promote violence, among others.

While on the topic of protests…

On Sunday the 15th, Jewish communities in Serbia and an association promoting Jewish heritage organized a march in Belgrade for peace in Israel. People carried Israeli flags and pictures of some of the Israeli civilian victims of the recent Hamas attack. The protesters also lit candles and sang the national anthem of Israel, and later listened to a Hebrew prayer for peace.

Another rally occurred in Kosovo on Thursday the 12th, where the Jewish community in Kosovo also lit candles for the victims, clearly siding with Israel. Kosovo PM Albin Kurti also publicly announced Kosovo’s support for Israel on Twitter.

These marches and rallies came after Israel declared war on Palestine on the 7th of October, leaving more than 4,000 people dead.

Going back to Serbia’s ties with the EU for a second…

On Wednesday the 11th, president Vucic warned that the recession that hit ten EU countries could significantly impact Serbia. He said that the Serbian economy had always felt the effects of lower consumption and recession, since ”the EU is Serbia’s most significant partner.”

The International Monetary Fund forecasted a continued slowdown of the global economy. However, they also predicted that the risk of a severe recession will keep declining. They also predicted that the Serbian GDP would grow by two percent in the remainder of twenty twenty-three, adding that they expect a GDP growth of three percent in twenty twenty-four.

While on the topic of economy…

Several Serbian economists have voiced their concerns about the country’s year-on-year inflation rate, and its reported fall. Economist Ljubodrag Savic said that people are not taking notice of the drop in the annual inflation, which is currently around ten percent, because they are more worried about the very high food inflation which affects Serbian citizens the most, currently standing at nearly fifteen percent. Savic said that Serbian citizens spend most of their funds on food, making the overall inflation decrease less important, compared to the food inflation which failed to drop.

In some health-related news…

Last week, the Institute for Public Health confirmed around 4,000 COVID-19 cases, with zero deaths. Compared to last week, the number of confirmed cases has increased by around a hundred.

And that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

Before we leave, we have a quick question for those following us for a while. How are we doing on bias? Ax grinding? We try to be independent and stick to the facts and context with favor and fear of none. How are we doing? Do we seem even a teensy bit biased? We are happy to see the Rorshok Serbia community is growing and want to be the best at what we do! Tell us your thoughts and opinions at serbia@rorshok.com

Do daljnjeg, zbogom!